White people and men believed that electing a white man who said that it was ok to privilege white men was ok.

Religious and conservatives saw him appointing judges doing their will.

Many believed he would cut their taxes and these tax cuts would stimulate the economy.

People don’t always vote for things they told you they voted for. People act shocked that we elected a brainless piece of human filth. The filth told them he would give them things they want. People didn’t vote for or against gaza on average they just don’t actually care.

I’m not going to individually go over 34 polls so lets pick the first arbitrarily

https://split-ticket.org/2024/07/10/we-polled-the-nation-heres-what-we-found/?ref=use-these-numbers.ghost.io

First one is about Biden it shows 13% going to third parties and 6% I don’t know. That is interesting but useless in determining anything of note. It’s also pretty wrong. More people always SAY they are going to vote third party than actually do. They lie to polls or to themselves.

Next we have Harris v Trump with 8% undecided equally useless for determining our counterfactual.

Next we have a question wherein they are arbitrarily asked if they would support “A candidate who” not a particular person but a arbitrary person who holds a given view. We learn that based on what people SAY there are always enough undecided to swing it either way but more people say they would vote for a democrat who holds those views. Now at last we have something interesting right well…

The problem is that something which adds blue voters in a blue state or too few to swing a red state is worth nothing in the final analysis. We know that some people say they would vote not for a actual candidate but for or against an imaginary hypothetical candidate but not if these gains would result in a single EC vote even if 100% true. The fact that again its a hypothetical person instead of the actual folks that people have strong feelings about is again also problematic.

In the end I’m no more convinced than I started. I’m not doing this 33 more to prove that the rest is equally trash because you wasted my time by not collecting a singular example instead of a huge list of bullshit.

When in the last 9 years or so have the polls been accurate enough to make this statement? The stated margin for error is usually big enough to go either way and the actual accuracy has been less than one would suppose from the margin of error.

This proves more people say they would support someone who says they will do something that aligns with what people say they support. It doesn’t mean the person actually shows up. Someone put on the spot may give you the answer you want and still not show up. I don’t think categorically you can prove the kind of thing you want to prove. If polls were remotely accurate we would be talking about president Hillary Clinton

Categorically Americans don’t give a fuck about what is happening to people in other countries. The same group most likely to say they do young people are the one that is least likely to even show up to spend 15 minutes voting. You can keep pretending that this shows what you think it shows but I will continue thinking that it shows people tell you the right answer when you put them on the spot.

I don’t think you can show via a survey after the fact that someone would have voted differently. I believe the entire idea is nonsense.

People saying that support when you present them with a moral issue isn’t the same thing as them actually turning up to vote. People have all sorts of opinions about what they ought to do and if you ask them if they intend to exercise, floss their teeth, and support the little chidrens in Africa. This doesn’t mean they will be doing ANYTHING of note given a chance.

Track actual attendance at gym, check their teeth, and ask for receipts for their donations to feed the starving kids. You’ll find that most of them fell short.

It is very very hard to predict who is going to win even when elections that aren’t all that close. Asking people how they would behave especially people who didn’t even bother to vote is fraught. People who aren’t happy about something are apt to say they would do something about it but they showed more about how motivated they are by not even bothering to show up in actual reality. I think anyone who tells you if you did this they would have voted for you is quite frankly full of shit.

White people voted for Trump because they believed they would be privileged. Men voted for him because they believed they would be privileged. Conservatives voted for him because he would appoint conservative judges Financially ignorant people voted for him because he would cut their taxes and encourage business. Republican’s voted for him because him being a Republican was far more important than any other factor. Most people who call themselves independent flatter themselves by saying so and in fact vote Red or Blue 95-99% of the time. Those who lean red were never going to vote for a non-white women running under the blue ticket.

None of these factors had anything to do with Israel or Gaza. People in America are selfish and self centered they were never going to vote differently based on Gaza.

Polls have been close not only wildly inaccurate but so incredibly spread out that you could find a few to support literally anyone position after the fact.

I think the thinking was that turning against Israel more publicly would have mostly garnered more entirely worthless votes in states that are already blue and risked losing at risk rust belt states.

If those voters would have been a bit smarter they could have threatened to stay home but actually voted against fascism then continued to petition the incoming regime which unlike Trump isn’t actually for genocide. Now there is a good chance for most of those folks you want to save being dead when its possible to reverse course IF its possible to reverse course and we don’t have a canceled election and a civil war thereafter.

Seems super likely that capitalism is going to be a major factor in our extinction. Maybe we could have a bit less of it and actually survive as a species