- Private payrolls drop 33,000 in June
- ADP historically is poor predictor of official nonfarm payrolls
- Challenger report shows sharp drop in layoffs
WASHINGTON, July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. private payrolls fell for the first time in more than two years in June as economic uncertainty hampered hiring, but low layoffs continued to anchor the labor market.
Private payrolls dropped by 33,000 jobs last month, the first decline since March 2023, after a downwardly revised increase of 29,000 in May, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the report would show private employment increasing by 95,000 following a previously reported gain of 37,000 in May.
There were job losses in the professional and business services, education and health services, and financial activities sectors. But the leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and construction industries added jobs.
The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of the more comprehensive employment report for June due to be released on Thursday by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. There is no correlation between the ADP and BLS employment reports.
The BLS’ employment report is being published a day early because of the Independence Day holiday on Friday. Economists shrugged off the decline in the ADP measure, noting its poor track record predicting the official payrolls count.
“Use ADP only to gauge the big picture,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
“Right now, that picture shows ADP’s private sector employment estimates declining steadily since December. Today’s big drop underscores that decaying trend.”
U.S. stocks were mixed in early trading. The dollar rose versus a basket of currencies. Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields rose.
Healthcare started laying people off, including nurses, engaging hiring freezes, and tightening 2 months ago. After the senate pass, they’ve promised more cuts.
Skilled people in healthcare will just get jobs in other countries. There’s too much demand worldwide.
I wouldn’t underestimate how challenging language barrier can be or the cost to move international
Many countries (US included) have had high demand for decades but still put a lot of obstacles in the way.
Unsure about nurses.