- Private payrolls drop 33,000 in June
- ADP historically is poor predictor of official nonfarm payrolls
- Challenger report shows sharp drop in layoffs
WASHINGTON, July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. private payrolls fell for the first time in more than two years in June as economic uncertainty hampered hiring, but low layoffs continued to anchor the labor market.
Private payrolls dropped by 33,000 jobs last month, the first decline since March 2023, after a downwardly revised increase of 29,000 in May, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the report would show private employment increasing by 95,000 following a previously reported gain of 37,000 in May.
There were job losses in the professional and business services, education and health services, and financial activities sectors. But the leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and construction industries added jobs.
The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of the more comprehensive employment report for June due to be released on Thursday by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. There is no correlation between the ADP and BLS employment reports.
The BLS’ employment report is being published a day early because of the Independence Day holiday on Friday. Economists shrugged off the decline in the ADP measure, noting its poor track record predicting the official payrolls count.
“Use ADP only to gauge the big picture,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
“Right now, that picture shows ADP’s private sector employment estimates declining steadily since December. Today’s big drop underscores that decaying trend.”
U.S. stocks were mixed in early trading. The dollar rose versus a basket of currencies. Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields rose.
Payroll drop but sharp drop in layoffs? Are people just quitting or are companies laying people off without calling them layoffs?
The company I work for uses ADP and it rarely gets the amount of PTO I have correct. I wouldn’t trust anything they report.
Healthcare started laying people off, including nurses, engaging hiring freezes, and tightening 2 months ago. After the senate pass, they’ve promised more cuts.
Skilled people in healthcare will just get jobs in other countries. There’s too much demand worldwide.
I love how so many believe anyone and everyone can “just move”. Moving, even locally, is beyond the means of many.
CNAs, RTs, and Nurses can, and often do, live paycheck to paycheck. This is variable among mid levels.
Maybe doctors can “just move”. It’s more likely, based on income. And backgrounds. Maybe. Again, you can’t know the circumstances or the breadth of the language barrier.
Canada maybe. It’s my understanding the income is fixed, across the board, and RNs with 2yr degrees could only work as LPNs in Canada, regardless of experience.
Again. Circumstances vary.
“Just move” isn’t good advice unless you know someone well enough to know it’s good advice for them.
I wouldn’t underestimate how challenging language barrier can be or the cost to move international
- Not the easiest thing to switch countries at least for MD/DOs. Only Canada and New Zealand accept US doctor qualifications (and not all specialities) without requiring additional training and sometimes repeating residency/fellowship.
Many countries (US included) have had high demand for decades but still put a lot of obstacles in the way.
Unsure about nurses.
I’m in the trades, we’ve only increased hiring.
What company or industry? I have been looking to do a job swap and have been struggling to find companies that are hiring
That or they pay shit. I’ve said “maybe 10 years ago” a few times to recruiters over the past year. Don’t insult me, I know what I’m worth.
I have seen that too, I’m in engineering and seeing jobs posted for 60k in hcol areas
That’s painful.
